What will the world be like after the economic crisis? #1

I took 27.04.09 article from the Baltic business news channel for a basis of my post, in which Jeffrey Scott Saunders from Copenhagen Institute of Futures Researches introduced four possible future developments that may be ahead after the crisis is over. Saunders emphasized that these are not predictions, but possible scenarios.

1. Serious hangover or West’s return
Fast adaption follows short imbalance, this is a typical cyclical crisis or hangover after the boom. The world economy meets its turning point in 2010 (stock markets in the end of 2009) and most countries show decent economic growth in 2011. In the worst case the economic growth will be slightly low, compared to near past, but still positive.

2. New world order or capitalism a’la China
Emerging economies, not western countries, are the first to recover after short-time imbalance – power will be shared differently. The economic growth recovers in 2011 in big emerging economies such as China or India. In western countries the recession continues.

3. End game of global capitalism or battle between areas
Several storm years are followed by deep economic downturn and stagnation in the whole world. The world economy keeps clearly falling until 2011. First rays of hope will appear in 2012, but actual recovery is thinkable in 2015 and with smaller indicators of economic growth than previously experienced.

4. Sustainable growth or back to the future.
Adaption takes time, but as a result the world economy is more sustainable than before. Consumer and entrepreneurs restore their confidence in 2012, but the year ends with zero-growth in the real economy. The world starts to recover from 2013.

In my next post I will write about how these possible scenarios may influence on Estonia.

3 thoughts on “What will the world be like after the economic crisis? #1

  1. As we can notice it’s very difficult to make predictions about the “after economic crisis”. These predictions are more or less optimists and that shows again the difficulty to get an exact prediction. The European Union forecasts the beginning of a better situation of our economy in 2010 but we must be careful with these kind of news and don’t think that economy is an exact science. Indeed we can say that the worst is behind us and the future can only be better…but what governments mean by better? Are we going to find the same situation as before the crisis? Or will governments finally understand that things have to change?

  2. I do not agree that the worst is behind us. I think that many long term impacts are still waiting in the future. I think that more people will loose their jobs, that jobs are not so secure as they were in the past and that people loose their trust in banks and other instituions. In fact, the result might be, that more and more people keep their money instead of investing. This beahviour would also result in more economical disasters.

  3. Maybe this is a great opportunity for financial institutions with sustainable assets like the ethikbank in Germany (www.ethikbank.de). I dont think the private will invest less money and with a lower risk-reward ratio. But they wont trust any banker in the future.


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