Demographic Changes.

A discussion on the global labour market must be commenced with a presentation of the 

demographic trends. Over the past fifty years, demographic factors had a significant influence 

on labour markets, and these changes will go even further in the next fifty years. Since the 

labour market is becoming ever more global, the demographic changes will be increasingly 

influential on local labour markets. According to UN estimates3, Europe’s population in 1950 

was 547 million, in 2005 ― 728 million, and is bound to decrease to 653 million in 2050, 

under the assumption that the present trends, including migrations, do not change 

significantly. It is estimated that over the next 45 years, when the European population drops 

by 75 million, the Asian population will grow by 1.3 billion, and the African population ― by 

over a billion. 

 

According to this data: In my opinion, there are three vital and far-reaching conclusions to 

be drawn. Firstly, the Asian population will account for over a half of the world’s population, 

and if the economic growth continues to significantly exceed the growth dynamics in the US 

and Europe, Asia will become the world’s economic centre. 

Secondly, the share of Europe in the world’s population will decrease threefold over a 

hundred years, i.e. in the period from 1950 to 2050. This means that if the Old Continent 

does not respond appropriately to the globalization challenges, in a few dozen years, all 

major global decisions will be made outside Europe, especially if the integration tendencies 

are continued in Asia, including the possible adoption of a single currency, which may be 

tentatively called  the “asian”.4 

Thirdly, the share of Africa in the world’s population will be a mirror image of the 

European trends and will increase almost threefold. It is still a very poor continent, of an 

unfavourable climate and poorly qualified workforce. However, in my opinion, the African 

countries will join the process of globalization in the manufacturing and services sectors sooner than it is expected, and some countries of the African continent may experience a very high economic growth rate in the decades to come, if their key political decision-makers take the chance that the globalization process gives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One thought on “Demographic Changes.

  1. I definitely agree, that Asia will be the new “center of trade”. Mainly everything will depend from this exploding market. Asia’s economy is growing so fast, that nobody can’t imagine when and how much the Asian markets will control.
    To compete half-way with this giant it’s necessary for Europe to find a niche – some markets, where it’s worth to specialize in. In my opinion this could be in general the service sector, like tourism.
    But i don’t think that Africa will be a big competitor, therefore is the structure of politics and government way to weak. Although it might be happend that the black market and smuggling are going to take important roles. But in general it’s too unorganized to compete with Europe and Asia.

    Reply

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