In the second half of 2010, the EU economy as a whole is projected to emerge from recession EK. When significant effects of fiscal and monetary policy will be to the forecast 0.7 percent growth in GDP in 2010 and 1.6 percent growth in GDP in 2011 to help strengthen the EU’s external environment factors as well as improving the conditions of funding.
The rate of recovery or limit slow down the number of factors in the private demand, especially delayed effects of the crisis on the labor market. The gradual stabilization of the employment is likely to occur in late 2010 and expected in 2011, in parallel with the return of sustainable economic growth.
The general government deficit was in 2009 in the EU and the euro area compared to the year 2008 almost tripled. In the year 2010 is projected to rise slightly and in 2011 settled at a high level of under 7 percent of GDP. The dynamics of public debt is a major concern in terms of long-term sustainability of public finances. The projections for inflation remains low.
The European Commission forecasts for Slovenia:
• GDP (annual% growth) -7.4 2009 +1.3 2010 +2.0 2011
• The unemployment rate (Eurostat): 6.7 2009 8.3 2010 8.5 2011
• Employment (annual percentage change) -2.6 2009 -2.0 2010 -0.3 2011
• Inflation (HICP) 0.9 2009 1.7 2010 2.0 2011
• Current account (percent of GDP in%): -0.8 2009 -0.2 2010 -0.6 2011
Within the EU, because the first signs of recovery in European economies have agreed common principles of exit strategies. These are in fact key to managing financial and economic crisis.
1. Coordination of exit strategies will be within the budget of the EU, as set out in the revised Stability and Growth Pact, aimed at strengthening confidence.
2. It is necessary to ensure the timely withdrawal of financial incentives. Given forecasts of the European Commission on enhancing recovery in a sustainable way, the Member States are beginning to implement fiscal consolidation later in 2011. The latter is crucial to ensuring long term sustainability and improve the quality of public finances. This will take into account specific situations in the Member State in terms of both speed and scale of recovery as the potential demand for financial consolidation before 2011.
3. Current challenges dictated by the ambitious fiscal consolidation program, which is expected to be structurally higher than now provided 0.5% of GDP on an annual basis. The European Commission, the Member States of the government deficit exceeds 3 percent of GDP (boundaries imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact), suggested a fall in fiscal deficit of 0.75 to one percent of GDP over the period 2010-2013.
4. Strengthening national fiscal frameworks to support the credibility of strategies to consolidate public finances, and measures to provide long-term fiscal sustainability.
5. In addition, to increase productivity, to step up efforts to implement structural reforms, including the positive long-term effects on investment.